USOs and the end of MAD

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USOs and the end of MAD
Highly Unfriendly Threats in the Artic Sea and the next Nuclear War
On the end of the Mutualy Assured Destruction paradigm


Deep concerns are being expressed over the fact that two nuclear weapon states " the United States and the Russian Federation, which together own 95 per cent of the nuclear weapons in the world " converge on the Arctic and have competing claims. These claims, together with those of other allied NATO countries " Canada, Denmark, Iceland, and Norway " could, if unresolved, lead to conflict escalating into the threat or use of nuclear weapons.




The US Geological Survey reckons that the Arctic"s share in the global conventional resources yet to be found amounts to 13 per cent for crude
oil and 30 per cent for natural gas. These resources are probably offshore for the most part (84 per cent).

In August 2008, Canadian Forces quietly deployed naval and air assets to investigate a report of a foreign submarine sighting near the eastern entrance of the Northwest Passage. The sub sighting, based on what the military described as a reliable report from hunters, occurred near the northern end of Baffin Island on August 9, 2008. The sighting was linked to a report a few days earlier of a mysterious explosion in the area, widely reported in the media. Another group of hunters heard the explosion, which was so large it shook their cabin. They emerged and saw a plume of black smoke some distance away. But in the case of the explosion and submarine sighting, the military commented only on the explosion, and rewrote planned responses for journalists, removing any reference to the submarine.

Nobody recognizes Canadian sovereignty claims beyond 12 nautical miles from the coast, and everybody considers the Northwest Passage international waters.




Listening devices and land-based sensors on Devon Island were installed in 2008 as part of the Northern Watch program, with the expectation that the full system woulb be completed by 2012. The new threat they face is, however, invisible, silent, fast, and lethal.



the underwater games of "cat and mouse" continue as before, and several near-collisions have been reported as the Russian subs become increasingly successful in shaking off their American "tails." The Cold War is not entirely over beneath the rapidly melting Arctic ice, and Russia"s nuclear submarine bases north of the Arctic Circle are yet another powerful signal that the Russians intend to enforce their claims in the Arctic. So, while the prospects of major progress on U.S.-Russian bilateral disarmament have never been brighter, the gradual rebuilding of the Russian Northern Fleet"s roster of ballistic missile submarines and the ongoing mission of American SSN"s to track them aggressively has meant increased rather than decreased U.S.-Russian naval competition.

the Arctic is becoming a zone of increased military competition. Russian President Medvedev announced the creation of a special military force to defend Arctic claims. Russian General Vladimir Shamanov declared that Russian troops would step up training for Arctic combat, and that Russia"s submarine fleet would increase its "operational radius." Recently, two Russian attack submarines were spotted off the U.S. east coast for the first time in 15 years.




Norway chose to buy 48 Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter jets, partly because of their suitability for Arctic patrols. In March, that country held a major Arctic military practice involving 7,000 soldiers from 13 countries in which a fictional country called Northland seized offshore oil rigs. They did not plan for USOs and other non-terrestrial highly unfriendly threats of which so far 5 have been positively detected.

Sweden held its largest northern military exercise since the end of the Second World War. About 12,000 troops, 50 aircraft and several warships were involved. The exercise was closely monitored by unfriendly forces and at least one large USO was detected by military radars.




Arctic boundaries are difficult to draw. The delineation of boundaries between Arctic states remains therefore an unresolved matter. Climate change has made that this region is increasingly accessible, both for possible energy exploitation and for maritime trade routes. The Arctic constitutes one of the planet last frontiers, and all states bordering it are racing to make sure they will get their piece of the action. This region entails very serious issues of military security, terrestrial and extra-terrestrial.




According to international law, and if Russia manages to prove that geological structure of oil-rich seabed conforms to the type found on the continental shelf, the area under Arctic Ocean will be considered the extension of Siberia and hence, belong to Russia.

while the United States continues to operate its nuclear-armed submarines at rates similar to Cold War levels, and conducts more submarine patrol missions than the rest of the world combined. In 2008, Ohio class subs conducted 31 patrols, most of them from the west coast base at Bangor, Washington. The average patrol lasts 72 days submerged, and some missions have gone past 100 days, yet the USO-1340 incident clearly showed how meagre this force is. Having in mind the USO was repeteadly able to appear and disappear at will, and even to hide from radars and sonars, it is clear that terrestrial forces should operate jointly.

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