Next persistent area denial strategies

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Next persistent area denial strategies

Differential Game Theory and Future Subwars



"The simulations suggest that if an engagement is continued after missing the first time, the attacker is successfully able to intercept the target subsequently. Results also indicate that the evasion and intercept trajectories are strongly coupled, that is, the behavior of the evasion trajectory affects the intercept trajectory and vice versa."



"On a typical Sol-3 game, the interceptor tries to minimize the miss-distance in order to achieve an intercept while the target tries to maximize the miss-distance in order to avoid intercept. If as soon as both parties detect and identify an UV both agree on attacking the UV, then the scenario changes into a stochastic game theory problem. The UV is expected to follow the known pattern of evasion and splitting into two spherical UAP (typically a larger greenish sphere surrounded by two smaller reddish ones)."



"An unsolicited visitor's target first appears as a semi-solid object that slowly becomes a greenish solid diamond-shaped target; engagement during this phase is always impossible; due to the nature of the object they get geometrically bounded to our vectors (missiles, aircrafts) and they co-move as a single system. When the splitting occurs, two red semi-solid spherical objects emerge that quickly move to both sides of the first object, and that co-move with it, but not with our vectors. This means the interception must occur when the splitting phase begins if we want to stand a chance to get a hit. It also means those objects are not radar or radio bounded: they are geometry-bounded."



"the object appeared to us as a self-luminous spherical UAP. We tracked the object for about 4 minutes. The object was suspended in the middle of the sky and it was obvious it started the splitting sequence when we decided to fire a DENIED against the search volume, as per the DENIED protocol. The object suddenly disappeared and we lose the signal on the radar screen."



"We think UVs represent a component in a larger dynamic system created by the interaction between the environment, the particular interceptor used, and whether or not the observer is human or non-human. This last point is a sensible one, for it means we should use manned interceptors autonomously guided. I'll be clear on this: a requirement to successfully intercept those objects seems to be that the interceptor has a crew, yet the engagement parameters and the fire decision must be machine-controlled. The crew is therefore totally expendable if we wish to down one of those diamond-shaped unsolicited visitors."



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